Hedging electricity swaptions using partial integro-differential equations

AbstractThe basic contracts traded on energy exchanges are swaps involving the delivery of electricity for fixed-rate payments over a certain period of time. The main objective of this article is to solve the quadratic hedging problem for European options on these swaps, known as electricity swaptions. We consider a general class of Hilbert space valued exponential jump-diffusion models. Since the forward curve is an infinite-dimensional object, but only a finite set of traded contracts are available for hedging, the market is inherently incomplete. We derive the optimization problem for the quadratic hedging problem under the risk neutral measure and state a representation of its solution, which is the starting point for numerical algorithms

Identification of genetic variants associated with Huntington's disease progression: a genome-wide association study

Background Huntington's disease is caused by a CAG repeat expansion in the huntingtin gene, HTT. Age at onset has been used as a quantitative phenotype in genetic analysis looking for Huntington's disease modifiers, but is hard to define and not always available. Therefore, we aimed to generate a novel measure of disease progression and to identify genetic markers associated with this progression measure. Methods We generated a progression score on the basis of principal component analysis of prospectively acquired longitudinal changes in motor, cognitive, and imaging measures in the 218 indivduals in the TRACK-HD cohort of Huntington's disease gene mutation carriers (data collected 2008–11). We generated a parallel progression score using data from 1773 previously genotyped participants from the European Huntington's Disease Network REGISTRY study of Huntington's disease mutation carriers (data collected 2003–13). We did a genome-wide association analyses in terms of progression for 216 TRACK-HD participants and 1773 REGISTRY participants, then a meta-analysis of these results was undertaken. Findings Longitudinal motor, cognitive, and imaging scores were correlated with each other in TRACK-HD participants, justifying use of a single, cross-domain measure of disease progression in both studies. The TRACK-HD and REGISTRY progression measures were correlated with each other (r=0·674), and with age at onset (TRACK-HD, r=0·315; REGISTRY, r=0·234). The meta-analysis of progression in TRACK-HD and REGISTRY gave a genome-wide significant signal (p=1·12 × 10−10) on chromosome 5 spanning three genes: MSH3, DHFR, and MTRNR2L2. The genes in this locus were associated with progression in TRACK-HD (MSH3 p=2·94 × 10−8 DHFR p=8·37 × 10−7 MTRNR2L2 p=2·15 × 10−9) and to a lesser extent in REGISTRY (MSH3 p=9·36 × 10−4 DHFR p=8·45 × 10−4 MTRNR2L2 p=1·20 × 10−3). The lead single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in TRACK-HD (rs557874766) was genome-wide significant in the meta-analysis (p=1·58 × 10−8), and encodes an aminoacid change (Pro67Ala) in MSH3. In TRACK-HD, each copy of the minor allele at this SNP was associated with a 0·4 units per year (95% CI 0·16–0·66) reduction in the rate of change of the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS) Total Motor Score, and a reduction of 0·12 units per year (95% CI 0·06–0·18) in the rate of change of UHDRS Total Functional Capacity score. These associations remained significant after adjusting for age of onset. Interpretation The multidomain progression measure in TRACK-HD was associated with a functional variant that was genome-wide significant in our meta-analysis. The association in only 216 participants implies that the progression measure is a sensitive reflection of disease burden, that the effect size at this locus is large, or both. Knockout of Msh3 reduces somatic expansion in Huntington's disease mouse models, suggesting this mechanism as an area for future therapeutic investigation

Identification of symbol digit modality test score extremes in Huntington's disease

Studying individuals with extreme phenotypes could facilitate the understanding of disease modification by genetic or environmental factors. Our aim was to identify Huntington's disease (HD) patients with extreme symbol digit modality test (SDMT) scores. We first examined in HD the contribution of cognitive measures of the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS) in predicting clinical endpoints. The language-independent SDMT was used to identify patients performing very well or very poorly relative to their CAG and age cohort. We used data from REGISTRY and COHORT observational study participants (5,603 HD participants with CAG repeats above 39 with 13,868 visits) and of 1,006 healthy volunteers (with 2,241 visits), included to identify natural aging and education effects on cognitive measures. Separate Cox proportional hazards models with CAG, age at study entry, education, sex, UHDRS total motor score and cognitive (SDMT, verbal fluency, Stroop tests) scores as covariates were used to predict clinical endpoints. Quantile regression for longitudinal language-independent SDMT data was used for boundary (2.5% and 97.5% quantiles) estimation and extreme score analyses stratified by age, education, and CAG repeat length. Ten percent of HD participants had an extreme SDMT phenotype for at least one visit. In contrast, only about 3% of participants were consistent SDMT extremes at two or more visits. The thresholds for the one-visit and two-visit extremes can be used to classify existing and new individuals. The identification of these phenotype extremes can be useful in the search for disease modifiers.Neurological Motor Disorder

Optimization of adsorptive removal of α-toluic acid by CaO2 nanoparticles using response surface methodology

The present work addresses the optimization of process parameters for adsorptive removal of α-toluic acid by calcium peroxide (CaO2) nanoparticles using response surface methodology (RSM). CaO2 nanoparticles were synthesized by chemical precipitation method and confirmed by Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and high-resolution TEM (HRTEM) analysis which shows the CaO2 nanoparticles size range of 5–15 nm. A series of batch adsorption experiments were performed using CaO2 nanoparticles to remove α-toluic acid from the aqueous solution. Further, an experimental based central composite design (CCD) was developed to study the interactive effect of CaO2 adsorbent dosage, initial concentration of α-toluic acid, and contact time on α-toluic acid removal efficiency (response) and optimization of the process. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed to determine the significance of the individual and the interactive effects of variables on the response. The model predicted response showed a good agreement with the experimental response, and the coefficient of determination, (R2) was 0.92. Among the variables, the interactive effect of adsorbent dosage and the initial α-toluic acid concentration was found to have more influence on the response than the contact time. Numerical optimization of process by RSM showed the optimal adsorbent dosage, initial concentration of α-toluic acid, and contact time as 0.03 g, 7.06 g/L, and 34 min respectively. The predicted removal efficiency was 99.50%. The experiments performed under these conditions showed α-toluic acid removal efficiency up to 98.05%, which confirmed the adequacy of the model prediction

Reduced Cancer Incidence in Huntington's Disease: Analysis in the Registry Study

Background: People with Huntington's disease (HD) have been observed to have lower rates of cancers. Objective: To investigate the relationship between age of onset of HD, CAG repeat length, and cancer diagnosis. Methods: Data were obtained from the European Huntington's disease network REGISTRY study for 6540 subjects. Population cancer incidence was ascertained from the GLOBOCAN database to obtain standardised incidence ratios of cancers in the REGISTRY subjects. Results: 173/6528 HD REGISTRY subjects had had a cancer diagnosis. The age-standardised incidence rate of all cancers in the REGISTRY HD population was 0.26 (CI 0.22-0.30). Individual cancers showed a lower age-standardised incidence rate compared with the control population with prostate and colorectal cancers showing the lowest rates. There was no effect of CAG length on the likelihood of cancer, but a cancer diagnosis within the last year was associated with a greatly increased rate of HD onset (Hazard Ratio 18.94, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Cancer is less common than expected in the HD population, confirming previous reports. However, this does not appear to be related to CAG length in HTT. A recent diagnosis of cancer increases the risk of HD onset at any age, likely due to increased investigation following a cancer diagnosis

Clinical and genetic characteristics of late-onset Huntington's disease

Background: The frequency of late-onset Huntington's disease (&gt;59 years) is assumed to be low and the clinical course milder. However, previous literature on late-onset disease is scarce and inconclusive. Objective: Our aim is to study clinical characteristics of late-onset compared to common-onset HD patients in a large cohort of HD patients from the Registry database. Methods: Participants with late- and common-onset (30–50 years)were compared for first clinical symptoms, disease progression, CAG repeat size and family history. Participants with a missing CAG repeat size, a repeat size of ≤35 or a UHDRS motor score of ≤5 were excluded. Results: Of 6007 eligible participants, 687 had late-onset (11.4%) and 3216 (53.5%) common-onset HD. Late-onset (n = 577) had significantly more gait and balance problems as first symptom compared to common-onset (n = 2408) (P &lt;.001). Overall motor and cognitive performance (P &lt;.001) were worse, however only disease motor progression was slower (coefficient, −0.58; SE 0.16; P &lt;.001) compared to the common-onset group. Repeat size was significantly lower in the late-onset (n = 40.8; SD 1.6) compared to common-onset (n = 44.4; SD 2.8) (P &lt;.001). Fewer late-onset patients (n = 451) had a positive family history compared to common-onset (n = 2940) (P &lt;.001). Conclusions: Late-onset patients present more frequently with gait and balance problems as first symptom, and disease progression is not milder compared to common-onset HD patients apart from motor progression. The family history is likely to be negative, which might make diagnosing HD more difficult in this population. However, the balance and gait problems might be helpful in diagnosing HD in elderly patients